SM Lee: The fundamental issue is that China has changed so much from what it was, to what it is today.
First, the size. When China started its “改革开放” (Open-Door Policy) in 1978 (第十一届三中全会), it was a very small part of the world economy and a negligible part of international trade. Today, it is 20% of the world economy and 20% of global trade. So anything which China does, whether it is good or it is bad, the impact on other countries is enormous. The situation has changed.
Secondly, China has developed and become much more advanced. In the earlier phase, it was growing, it was exporting. But it was making things which other countries wanted, needed and did not make themselves. You make clothing, you make belts, buttons, you make lower-end electronics products, assemble goods, things which other countries were happy to say, “Well, it is not economic for me to do. China can do”. But now China has moved up.
All those products which are labour intensive and which it used to make, are migrating. They are going to Vietnam, they are going to Bangladesh, other third world countries. And China is moving up. China is making EVs. You are making portable photovoltaic panels. You have got your pharmaceutical industries. You are in industries which are competing with similar advanced industries in the developed economies.
It is a more competitive relationship and therefore China's growth in these markets is not just benefiting the consumers, but also impacting the producers in other countries. And that is difficult. You have to accommodate somehow, but it is difficult.
Thirdly, because China has grown and developed so much, its interests around the world have also grown and developed. And not just in scale, but also in the things which you are concerned with. You have strategic interests, you have security interests, you have foreign policy interests in very faraway parts of the world. The Belt and Road Initiative includes countries in South America. And in Africa, China is very active. China's interface with the rest of the world is multifaceted. And then the question comes, “Who is number one? Who is number two? How does number one and number two work together? Can you work together?”
I think these are objective changes. There is no doubt that for the world, we are much better off with China like it is today, than with China as it was 30 or 40 years ago or 50 years ago. But it means that there has to be an adjustment. It is not a matter of right and wrong. But it is in China's interest, and it is in the world's interest that this adjustment has to be made. What is the adjustment? It is to acknowledge that the situation has changed, that China's heft, its influence, its impact on the world is on a different scale. And you have to make accommodations and adjustments to the rules, which were set up at a time when China was much smaller.
If you are a small economy and your exports actually do not threaten any of my industries, I am prepared to cut you a lot of slack. You can subsidise them, you can protect your own market. You can have all sorts of different privileges, which the more developed economies have decided not to have amongst themselves.
But when you are now not so underdeveloped, and when you are huge, and when your exports can be maybe 80% of the global manufacturing of photovoltaic panels, for example, then those concessions are no longer politically tenable. And it has to be worked out. It has to be re-negotiated so that you can have a good basis to do those things. I think that is very hard. That is one thing China has to do.
On the other side, on the part of the other countries in the world, you have to get used to the fact that there is going to be a very big China in this world, a very powerful and developed China in this world, a China which has advanced technologies, which is going to be world-class in many areas and world-leading in some.
And we have to have some way to induct them into the global system and to accommodate their legitimate concerns and interests. And if you do not do that, and you say, “No, I do not want China to be strong. I want it to remain always number two or better still, number 2.5”, I think that is going to head for a lot of mutual distrust and difficulties.
But it is a very difficult adjustment to make, because if you are at 2.5, you wish to become 2. And when you reach 2, you may wish to become 1.5. And so how to have that balance and wisdom to maintain a cooperative relationship which will benefit both sides? I think that takes statesmanship of a very high order on the part of the major powers.